Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

A little background

  • In case you are trying the MARS MAP Classroom Challenges for the first time, it is recommended that you read the Brief Guide for teachers and administrators before you get started.
  • Before the lesson, students work individually on an assessment task that is designed to reveal their current understanding and difficulties. You then review their work and create questions for students to answer in order to improve their solutions.
  • At the start of the lesson, students work alone answering your questions about the same problem. Students are then grouped and engage in a collaborative discussion of the same task.
  • In the same small groups, students are given sample solutions to analyze and evaluate.
  • Finally, in a whole-class discussion, students explain and compare the alternative solution strategies they have seen and used.
  • Finally, students review what they have learnt.
  • Additional resources for this lesson include: lucky_dip_slides.ppt

Objectives

  • To help you assess how well students are able to understand conditional probability.
  • To help you assess how well students are able to represent events as a subset of a sample space using tables and tree diagrams.
  • To help you assess how well students are able to communicate their reasoning clearly.
60 mins HSS.MD.A.2 K-12.MP.1 K-12.MP.2 K-12.MP.3 K-12.MP.4 HSS.CP.A.2 HSS.CP.A.3 HSS.CP.A.4 HSS.MD.A.1 HSS.MD.A.3 HSS.MD.A.4 HSS.CP.A.1 HSS.CP.A.5
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